Well, probably not the most elegant or amusing titles for a blog entry. But then there was little that was elegant about the last 2 weeks.
So COP15 is over, and the ‘accord’ is such a flimsy piece of paper, I think most 14 year olds would be embarrassed to hand that in as an essay, let alone the basis for a new global commitment to a low-carbon future. What I clearly missed, is someone standing up and explaining that someone else’s dog ate the fuller document just moments before delivery. Or that someone else had forgotten their PE kit. Or had to go to the dentist. Or some other sorry, feeble excuse that seems colossal in its smallness, against a backdrop of 52,000 negotiators with arguably the most important task in their careers.
But where does that leave business?
In the last post, I mentioned the tricky squeeze now facing firms and their brands, between no clear policy architecture on the one hand, and an increasingly demanding consumer and stakeholder base on the other. Tricky indeed. But then maybe this will be the making of the most progressive and innovative companies? If we look back, those companies that have launched the most compelling and innovative products and services, have done so without policy incentives. If anything, they have led policy towards establishing new structures around their innovation. So maybe the same will happen here. Truly innovative companies do not wait for an invitation - they don’t need someone to confirm the temperature and acidity of the water before jumping in (or the depth of the pool…). They just jump in.
This has always been an issue for me, when commentators bang on about sustainability being all about innovation and new markets. It’s as if someone is trying to sell the elixir of corporate life from a caravan - and all you have to do is take a tiny sip of it with your tea and all your business woes will vanish. Sustainability, the silver bullet, the one-size-fits-all, the all-you-can-eat buffet, the cure for everything. Or your money back.
It cannot work like that. No corporate device can. People have argued with me that sustainability strategies do not always work. Well, I say back, there are plenty of occasions when marketing strategies, HR strategies, corporate strategies do not work, but should we abandon all those as well? No, I didn’t think so.
This issue of sustainability being all things to all companies, and the demand for utter clarity around policy at COP 15, could well be two sides of the same coin - a desire to remove all risk from the innovation process. To look for blanket assurances that naively offer a template for innovation. But of course it cannot work that way. Innovation seeds best in broken, abandoned, dysfunctional environments.
This may well be a case of grasping for shadows of straws in the dark, but maybe it could be the making of some firms. Firms that see this really as a chance to genuinely trail-blaze and lock in long-term value through radical differentiation, that nervous competitors dare not emulate.
Classical strategy theory (from MBA days) talks of the attractiveness of a market partly determined by barriers to entry - the logic being the harder it is to enter and copy, the longer you can enjoy some form of exclusivity of course. Well, if that still holds true, then in a world where barriers to entry are falling at a rate of knots, innovation around climate change could represent the single-most exciting market opportunity precisely because of the splutter that has been COP15. With no firm roadmap in place, with no assurances and guarantees of policy support, the market has become volatile, uncertain, and unclear. So marvel at these towering barriers to entry, that will scare the life out of all businesses except those with the fire and foresight to get stuck in.
So maybe Copenhagen, in a way no-one saw coming, has indeed delivered on being all about Hopenhagen. For a select, brave few, who will end up ruling the world.
Guy
